Aug. 3, 2006 — Researchers have for the first time developed a "risk score" to try to predict which people may develop dementia.
The leading factors virtually mirror those already known for cardiovascular disease: obesity, high blood pressure and high cholesterol, according to the study published Thursday in the journal Lancet Neurology.
Having any one of these risk factors doubles a person's chance of developing dementia, and having all three increases their chances by six times, said Dr. Miia Kivipelto, an associate professor at the Aging Research Centre in Stockholm, Sweden, and the study's lead author.
Risk scores have been developed for other diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, "but we've never before had a tool like this for estimating the risk of dementia," Kivipelto said.
The study looked at 1,409 middle-aged people in Finland from 1972 to 1987, who were then re-examined 20 years later. Forty of those developed dementia.
While cautioning that the results still need to be validated in further studies in different populations, Kivipelto says that their risk score predicted dementia occurrence with about a 70 percent accuracy rate.
"We have known for years that trying to control obesity, blood pressure and cholesterol can prevent heart disease," said Kivipelto, "but now it's not only the heart you can save, but also the brain."
Unfortunately, there is no effective treatment for dementia, and mental health experts admit that the disease may not be entirely preventable.
"Even if you remove all of the risk factors, and control your blood pressure and cholesterol, and are not obese, there is no guarantee that you will not develop dementia," said Dr. Jose Bertolote, coordinator of Mental and Brain Disorders at the World Health Organization.
Factors such as genetics and age, known to play a role in determining mental illness, simply cannot be modified. In addition, other risk factors such as drinking alcohol, diet and smoking, were not considered in the study.
Still, identifying at least some of the potential warning signs of dementia will be an important tool in attempting to prevent mental illness.
