Fortnow and his colleagues wrote a program that automatically downloads probability data from Tradesports.com and, in real time, converts that data into a color.
States favored to go Republican are colored red; those favored to Democratic are colored blue. Lighter shades of both indicate tightly contested races.
After the election results come in, Fortnow's team will determine just how accurate the predictions were.
Using data from a site like Tradesports.com to forecast who will win an election is just scratching the surface, said Robin Hanson, associate professor of economics at George Mason University in Fairfax, VA, and one of the founders of the field of prediction markets.
Although the economic incentive is high for picking a winner, Hanson would like to see prediction markets forecast the consequences of a candidate getting into office. Will unemployment go up or down? Will we have more or less trouble in Iraq? Will we decrease or increase the deficit?
"The social value of telling people who's likely to win is questionable. The social value of telling people the consequences is arguably far higher," said Hanson.
