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Avalanche Forecast Worsens With Warming

Larry O'Hanlon, Discovery News

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A Growing Hazard?

Feb. 20, 2008 -- New research on the timing of deadly avalanches in mountain ski areas such as Aspen, Colo., suggests global warming could start the worst kind of snowy train wrecks earlier in the year in mountains all over the world.

Depending on the rate the climate warms, avalanche season could move up anywhere from 2 to 19 days by the year 2030 and 16 to 45 days earlier by 2100, say researchers who published their findings in the February issue of the journal Cold Regions Science and Technology.

Just as important as the timing, however, is the type of avalanches the warmer temperatures are likely to bring. Snow avalanches come in two flavors: dry and wet.

Dry avalanches occur when the snow is well below freezing temperature. The snow pours down the slopes in dry avalanches but is less weighty than in a warmer, wet avalanche.

"Dry snow packs behave much differently," said Brian Lazar of Stratus Consulting in Colorado and lead author of the new study.

Dry snow packs are more common in colder mountains like the Rockies, and they are much easier to control. The typical technique is to deliberately trigger dry avalanches with explosives, thereby reducing the danger of unexpected avalanches onto skiers or highways.

Wet avalanches, on the other hand, are more common when the air temperature is above freezing -- something that would be more common in many areas and happen earlier in the year as global warming progresses. Unfortunately, the explosive technique doesn't work so well with wet snow packs, Lazar said.

"With a lot of water they are harder to release," said Lazar, referring to the experiences of avalanche control professionals in wetter mountain ranges like the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest and the Sierra Nevada of California.

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