March 28, 2008 -- A new online interactive by Yale University economists lets anyone see how even under the worst conditions, a move to a cleaner, less fossil fuel-dependent economy is good for the United States.
The interactive website brings together thousands of policy studies and hones them down to seven key assumptions that create 80 percent of the differences between models' predictions about what will happen to the economy if it takes a turn for the greener.
The site lets anyone choose the assumptions they feel are most realistic and then see for themselves the likely economic results, based on the models.
A pessimist's turn at the interactive shows the U.S. Gross Domestic Product growing -- not shrinking -- by 2.4 percent per year. Even with carbon emissions lowered to the projected "Business-As-Usual" fossil fuel burning trend, the economy would reach $2.3 trillion by 2030. That compares with historical annual growth rates of three percent.
Under the most favorable assumptions the economy would boom at slightly more than three percent annually, especially if emissions are brought down with the help of a national policy, said Yale University economist Robert Repetto, who created the interactive.
"People hear (that carbon emission reductions are) ruinous, catastrophic," said Repetto. "There is absolutely no support for that. It doesn't matter whose model you use."
To counter that perception, Repetto decided it was time to bring together 27 specific economic models that have been created in recent years -- each integrating a much larger amount of economic research -- and let people judge for themselves.
"It's based not on one particular analysis but on all of them," stressed Repetto to Discovery News.
At very least, the interactive highlights the key variables that affect the greening of the U.S. economy, he said.
"The conclusion stated in the text is very much in line with the recent McKinsey report on carbon mitigation," said Roel Snieder, a geoscientist working on climate change issues at the Colorado School of Mines.
"This report clearly shows that many measures to reduce carbon emissions actually pay for themselves."
The main point is that for many steps in changing the U.S. economy, the cost is negative, Snieder told Discovery News.
"This is a complicated way of saying that we are making money," said Snieder. "This also means that there are business and career opportunities available."
Related Links:
Larry O'Hanlon's blog: Earth Impacts
See for Yourself: How Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Would Affect U.S. Economy