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3-D Hurricane Tracking System Avoids Surprises

Larry O'Hanlon, Discovery News

There was a six-hour blind spot between aircraft measurements of the storm, during which the hurricane quickly intensified. The then experimental VORTRAC spotted the storm revving up every step of the way.

"Last year it worked quite well," said McAdie. And so now it is becoming a regular part of the NHC's arsenal, he said.

"Humberto was just meandering around and didn't look like it was going to do anything, but then suddenly it intensified," said Paul Harasti of NCAR. He has worked on VORTRAC for more than a decade, using archived data to simulate what can now be measured in real time, he explained.

Another example of a storm in which VORTRAC might have been useful is Hurricane Charlie in 2004. That hurricane's wind speeds ramped up from 110 miles per hour to 145 miles per hour in six hours as it neared the coast of Florida.

"This (VORTRAC) information is a little too late for evacuation," said Harasti. "But it helps forecasters for flooding and wind damage."

It could also help people inland from coastal areas know what's coming, added NCAR's Michael Bell.

The beauty of VORTRAC, said Bell, is that it uses Doppler radar systems which are already in place. This means the same technique will also work in other parts of the world where Doppler radar systems are now or will soon be installed around the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

Related Links:

Larry O'Hanlon's blog: Earth Impacts

National Hurricane Center

How Stuff Works: Predicting a Hurricane

National Center for Atmospheric Research