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Watson pieced together his mathematical model by examining four critical stages that needed to occur in a particular order for intelligent life to arise on Earth. He then factored in how long a planet like Earth is suitable for habitation. The steps include the emergence of single-celled bacteria, complex cells, specialized cells allowing for complex life forms and finally intelligent life with an established language. "Complex life is separated from the simplest life forms by several very unlikely steps and therefore will be much less common. Intelligence is one step further, so it is much less common still," Watson said. Based on the model, Watson said each stage of evolution had at most a 10 percent chance of occurring, and each development could manifest only after each proceeding step. Further, the evolutionary stepping-stones are spaced evenly throughout Earth's history, Watson added. Unfortunately, by the time intelligent life reared, Earth was in its twilight years. Watson believes the same conditions would hold true on other habitable planets as well. His research is published Astrobiology magazine. Related Links: Irene Klotz's blog: Free Space |
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