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2008 Hurricane Forecast: Doesn't Look Good

Juan Castro Olivera, AFP
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Brennan called on authorities to train volunteers to work in areas that could be hit by hurricanes. "There are still plenty of volunteer gaps that need to be filled," he said.

The most hurricane-prone U.S. region is the southeastern coastline, running from the states of North Carolina to Texas. The region is home to some 35 million people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Despite the risks, during the last half century more than 25 million people moved to these areas, with the majority -- 15 million -- living in Florida, according to Census Bureau figures.

In early April a University of Colorado team led by William Gray, who has been in the hurricane predicting business for 25 years, forecast that there would be 15 tropical storms during the season, eight of which will hit hurricane strength and four of which would be major.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Phil Klotzbach, a scientist on Gray's team.

Klotzbach predicted a "very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."

In 2004 and 2005 hurricanes Frances, Jeanna and Katrina ripped through the Caribbean and hit the U.S. coast, leaving a trail of destruction and death in its path.

The 2007 season was milder than had been forecast, but was still devastating.

Two hurricanes with top wind speeds of more than 150 miles an hour hit. In August Hurricane Dean killed at least 29 people as it tore through the Caribbean and parts of Mexico, and a month later Hurricane Felix left 150 people dead and major devastation as it slammed Nicaragua's Caribbean coast.

Warmer seas accounted for 40 percent of a dramatic surge in hurricanes from the mid-1990s, according to a study released in January by the British journal Nature.

Some of the 21 names that would be used for tropical storms this year include Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Gustav, Ike, Laura, Nana, Paloma, Rene, Teddy and Vicky.


Related Links:

Discovery News Blog: Earth Impacts

National Hurricane Center

Discovery Earth Live

Planet Green

Treehugger.com

How Stuff Works: Predicting a Hurricane


 
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