Sea Level Rise May Be Twice More Than Expected

Sept. 4, 2008 -- Goodbye Kiribati, the Maldives and much of the Netherlands. Farewell to low-lying cities. See you beneath the sea.

The poster children for global warming, these areas are living on the brink, utterly prone to drowning as the oceans rise. And if a new study is right, a lot more places will be added to the list sooner than anyone ever thought.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s worst projections for Greenland's contribution to sea level rise top out at 68 centimeters (27 inches) by the year 2100. Such a rise would imperil coastal cities around the world.

But Anders Carlson of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a team of researchers say the problem is potentially a lot worse. They say the oceans could rise by as much as 1.3 meters (4.3 feet) by the end of the century, double the IPCC's estimate.

If the team's findings are right, some 145 million people living within 1 meter (3.3 feet) of sea level would be in danger. By one United Nations calculation, a meter rise in the oceans would cost the world $944 billion in damages and lost productivity.

Governments in low-lying nations and cities should take heed, Carlson said. "They should be paying attention to the fact that the potential for sea level rise is greater than what they are planning for right now," he said.