On March 16, 2005 seismologists warned that the quake had caused stress build up on the Sunda and Sumatra faults, and that they were primed for another massive temblor. Twelve days later their calculations were grimly verified: a magnitude 8.7 earthquake struck on the Sunda fault off Sumatra's coast, killing 1,300 people. "For the 2005 Sumatra quake, researchers made a prediction that seemed to be confirmed" Eric Kirby of Pennsylvania State University said. "[The work in China] will be another one of those tests." But even in highly active seismic regions, earthquakes in excess of magnitude 7.0 are rare, and it might be years before additional stresses from a big quake trigger another one in its wake. So the team working in China made an additional forecast. They estimate that if their calculations are correct, the increased stress on the Kunlun, Xianshuihe, and Min Jiang faults will cause an increased rate of small quakes of around magnitude 3.2 or greater. The normal background rate of small quakes each decade should double or triple. If it does, a big one could soon follow. "This doesn't mean that what we do is prediction in any sense of the word," Stein said. "But a calculation like this can have a bearing on assessing earthquake hazard in a region." Related Links: |
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