Japan's Tsunami History Shows What's in Store

Michael Reilly, Discovery News
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In theory, huge storm surges could have deposited the sand, but a tempest with a 13-foot surge raked the region several years ago and left no sign of its passing in the marsh, which is protected by 33-foot-high cliffs.

Nutter believes the deposits have tsunami origins. And they must have been big: In 2003 a magnitude 8.3 earthquake in the Kuril trench generated a wave 13 feet high, not nearly enough to reach the marsh.

The deposits also seem to repeat every 500 years or so, suggesting the Kuril is capable of regularly ripping off huge earthquakes that could have devastating results.

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"The new research should help define the inundation hazard that the tsunamis pose," Brian Atwater of the United State Geological Survey said in an e-mail to Discovery News. "The research may also lay groundwork for improved estimates of the size and recurrence intervals of the associated earthquakes."

In a paper published last year, Atwater pointed out the Japanese government has already recalculated the tsunami hazard based on the team's initial results. In the case of an extraordinary earthquake, the resulting tsunami could destroy 5,600 homes and kill 850 people, even though the country has an advanced tsunami warning system in place.


Related Links:

Michael Reilly's blog: Strike-Slip

How Stuff Works: Tsunamis

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