"On the receiving side," he said, "the more people in a potential destination, the higher the inflow of migrants. ... But, to our surprise, the population density of a destination doesn't play a significant role. The migrants don't care. They want to go where there are more people, but they don't care if it is more or less crowded." "In the future, migration is going to be relatively more important," Cohen added, because fertility rates have declined and survival rates have improved, meaning births and deaths have a smaller effect on a country's annual population growth than in the past. Countries rely on population projections to plan many aspects of their economies, which is why projections are important. Agencies and governments have sometimes assumed steady migration rates from year to year. Others have done better at trying to explain the forces behind migration in individual countries, including wages, population age structure or cultural attitudes, Roig said, but these have not been aimed at global projections. "What we needed is data for all countries in the world, or as many as possible," Roig said. "The Achilles heel here is the quality of the data," Cohen said. "Different countries have vastly different definitions of what constitutes a migrant." Australia, for example, reported 3,971 migrants to the U.K. in 1998, while the U.K. registered 41,800 Australian arrivals. Australia counted permanent emigrants, while the U.K. counted anyone staying a year or longer. The team has not yet made any future predictions with the model; that is the next step. The U.N. Population Division is considering using the model, or a future version, in its population projections, Roig said. Related Links: |
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