But given the ever-warming waters and air temperatures, Jay Zwally of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center said the new ice has little chance of making a long term recovery. "The reason volume is so important is new ice can't get thick enough in the winter to survive next summer's melting," he said. "It takes seven to eight years for sea ice to reach its equilibrium thickness of around four to five meters." Last December, Zwally predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be seasonally ice free by the end of the summer of 2013, five years from now. It would be more than just a symbolic milestone of the warming Earth. Pack ice is very good at reflecting sunlight, which protects the water below from warming. As the ice dwindles so does its shielding effect so that the less ice there is, the more quickly the ocean warms. This factor, called the ice-albedo feedback, figures to exacerbate the effects of global warming, like shifting climate patterns and rising sea level. The latest measurements are preliminary, though they seem to confirm Zwally's suspicions. However he stressed that scientists will have a better handle on the situation later this year, once the data are in from the ICE Sat satellite, which is currently taking readings of ice thickness from orbit. Related Links: National Snow and Ice Data Center Slide Show: Arctic Sea Ice Approaches Record Low Treehugger: Arctic Just Witnessed Fastest August Ice Retreat in History |
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