"This is all part of chasing down what makes earthquakes start and stop," said Thomas Parsons of the United States Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif. As scientists seek to improve earthquake forecasting, he explained, it's vitally important to understand their cycles. "As you try to calculate the probability of the next big quake, there's a lot of debate on how to do that," he added. "This study starts to hone in on the variability in magnitude you can get in the same section of fault." While more detailed study will be needed, Parsons said that patterns in large earthquake occurrence may start to emerge, helping scientists predict when the next monster quake may strike. For now, Avouac thinks enough energy is still stored in the fault to unleash a devastating quake -- followed by a lethal tsunami -- any moment. "Nearby is the city of Padang, with a population of one million, living at low elevation," Avouac said. "So the tsunami threat is very high here." Related Links: |
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