Jan. 21, 2009 -- By the end of the century, the hottest temperatures in recent history will become typical, and the world's food supply will be in deep trouble as a result. Those grim predictions come from a new study that looked at heat waves of the past as well as climate projections for the future to paint a frightening picture of what's to come: severe food shortages and rising malnutrition, especially in places where people are already poor and hungry. "The changes are so big and in the wrong direction in places where it really matters," said agricultural economist David Bittisti, of the University of Washington, Seattle. He led the study, which appeared recently in the journal Science. Related Content: Get the Latest in Science and Tech News From Discovery How Stuff Works: The Top 10 Worst Effects of Global Warming Sunshade Idea Not Feasible Battisti urges immediate reductions in fossil fuel emissions and agricultural preparations for a warmer world. "If we don't adapt, we will have really serious problems," he told Discovery News. "People will need to either migrate or die." Battisti and colleagues used 23 global climate models to forecast average growing season temperatures through the end of the century. All the models agreed: With our current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, there is a greater than 90 percent chance that by 2100, summers in the tropics and subtropics will be hotter than the hottest summers recorded between 1900 and 2006. In temperate regions, last century's most extreme summers will be the norm. To predict how such temperature changes might affect crop growth, the scientists looked at several past examples of extreme heat, including Western Europe's record hot summer of 2003. During that three-month heat wave, some 52,000 people died from heat-related stress, and corn yields dropped by more than 30 percent in Italy and France. Get More NewsSpiders, Scorpions Among World's Oldest CreaturesMany creepy crawlies have been on Earth much longer than previously believed.Blood-Sucking Vampire Bats Sing DuetsWhite-winged vampire bats "harmonize" with separated roost mates.Oldest Hebrew Writing Possibly FoundAncient inscriptions on a 3,000-year-old pottery shard could make history.Rare, Prehistoric-Age Reptile Found in N.Z.A tuatara has been spotted on the New Zealand mainland for the first time in 200 years.Iceman Has No Living RelativesOetzi, the 5,300 year-old frozen mummy, left no living genetic legacy.SLIDE SHOW: Landscapes of TerrorWhat makes a place feel scary? There are scientific explanations.It's Official: People Are Warming the PolesHumans are conclusively to blame for polar warming, say scientists.Eight-Armed Animal Preceded DinosaursWhat may be one of Earth's first animals was no bigger than a coaster and had eight arms.Phoenicians Live on in People's GenesOne in 17 Mediterranean men may be descended from ancient Phoenicians.Pesticides, Fertilizers Linked to Frog DeclineA pesticide is found to promote parasites among amphibians.Hubble Telescope Taking Photos AgainThe Hubble Space Telescope is once again snapping stunning photos of the universe.Andean Mummy Hairs Show Hallucinogen UseScientists find direct evidence of hallucinogenic drug use among ancient Andeans.Opals on Mars Reveal Planet's Long Wet PastOpals found on Mars suggest the planet has been wet for much longer. |
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