Feb. 17, 2009 -- Climate change is influencing the spread of malaria in ways far more complicated than previously thought. According to new research, the disease's ability to spread depends not just on how temperature changes from month to month and year to year, but also on how temperature fluctuates throughout the day. By looking at climate patterns in more detail, the new data suggest that scientists may need to reconsider their predictions of where malaria epidemics might strike next. "We may be overestimating the risk in warmer environments, but underestimating the risk in colder environments," said Penn State entomologist Matthew Thomas. He presented his findings on Saturday at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Chicago. "We can be wrong by 50 to 100 percent or more." Related Content: The implications are enormous, said Chris Thomas, of Aberystwyth University in the U.K., who does related work. More than a million children die from malaria every year in Africa. "That's one child every 30 seconds," he said. "This is for a preventable and treatable disease." And things could get worse. With global warming, malaria is spreading into new regions, though scientists don't yet know exactly where, when and how patterns of the disease are going to change. One reason for the uncertainty, Matthew Thomas said, is that most predictive models consider only a rise in average temperatures over days, months or even years. But climate projections also forecast a spike in extreme weather events as well as a rise in variability as the atmosphere heats up. Already, a typical day in a malaria-infested place like Tanzania might average 25 degrees Celsius (77 degrees Fahrenheit), but nights can drop to 15 degrees C (59 degrees F) with daytime highs of 32 degrees C (90 degrees F). Those peaks and dips, Thomas suspected, might affect malaria-transmitting Anopheles mosquitoes in a number of ways. When a mosquito drinks the blood an infected person, the insect also swallows the malaria parasite, which then must incubate and multiply before migrating into the insect's saliva.Get More NewsSpiders, Scorpions Among World's Oldest CreaturesMany creepy crawlies have been on Earth much longer than previously believed.Blood-Sucking Vampire Bats Sing DuetsWhite-winged vampire bats "harmonize" with separated roost mates.Oldest Hebrew Writing Possibly FoundAncient inscriptions on a 3,000-year-old pottery shard could make history.Rare, Prehistoric-Age Reptile Found in N.Z.A tuatara has been spotted on the New Zealand mainland for the first time in 200 years.Iceman Has No Living RelativesOetzi, the 5,300 year-old frozen mummy, left no living genetic legacy.SLIDE SHOW: Landscapes of TerrorWhat makes a place feel scary? There are scientific explanations.It's Official: People Are Warming the PolesHumans are conclusively to blame for polar warming, say scientists.Eight-Armed Animal Preceded DinosaursWhat may be one of Earth's first animals was no bigger than a coaster and had eight arms.Phoenicians Live on in People's GenesOne in 17 Mediterranean men may be descended from ancient Phoenicians.Pesticides, Fertilizers Linked to Frog DeclineA pesticide is found to promote parasites among amphibians.Hubble Telescope Taking Photos AgainThe Hubble Space Telescope is once again snapping stunning photos of the universe.Andean Mummy Hairs Show Hallucinogen UseScientists find direct evidence of hallucinogenic drug use among ancient Andeans.Opals on Mars Reveal Planet's Long Wet PastOpals found on Mars suggest the planet has been wet for much longer. |
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