The committee's projections call for CO2 levels in the atmosphere to approach 500 parts per million by 2050, if emissions continue on their current trend. But Rutledge's work suggest that even if humans burn all the coal and oil we can get our hands on, we won't be able to push CO2 past 450 ppm. Oil sands and other unconventional fossil fuels probably won't add much to that total. Murray and Rutledge diverge on the question of climate effects, though. Using IPCC models, Rutlgedge argues that global temperatures won't get higher than 2 degrees Centigrade (3.6 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, at the lower end of what scientists think might spark "dangerous" climate change. "We're still going to have global warming, and it's a serious threat," Murray said. "I have no doubt the IPCC dramatically underestimates climate sensitivity." Regardless of climate impacts, the concern over looming energy scarcity may be more acute than ever. "I think we'll see peak coal somewhere between 2025 and 2035," Richard Heinberg of the Post Carbon Institute in California said. "This has huge economic implications. Without growth in our energy supplies, it's very difficult to see how we're going to grow the economy." Related Links: TreeHugger: Coal's Darkest Hour Comes Just Before EPAs New Dawn Global Warming: What You Need to Know Discovery Earth for interviews, images and more. |
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